Monetary policy and the European energy crisis.
Barry Copeland
15 / April / 22
Visitors: 699
Prices for large Western government bonds continue to fall for the fourth consecutive session. The ten-year BTP returns to the 91 euro zone with a yield of 1.909%, while the Bund falls to 97 euros with a yield of 0.266%. After the uncertainty of the Ukrainian conflict and the price environment, the European Central Bank decided to take a clear position, deciding to stop quantitative easing earlier than expected, with an immediate reaction from the bond market. As expected, the ECB left its key policy positions unchanged for the very short term (the deposit rate and the margin lending rate remain stable), but decided to decline more quickly and signaled the possibility of stopping bond purchases in the third quarter if the inflation forecast does not weaken. During the press conference, President Lagarde focused on the possible consequences of the crisis in Eastern Europe, saying that due to rising energy prices and supply problems, there will be bearish consequences for the European economy.; for this reason, it is now considered likely that inflation will remain high in the long term, since the surge in raw materials is accompanied by both purely energy inflation and broader inflation due to supply disruptions caused by the pandemic. Meanwhile, the price of crude oil has now increased by another 1.75%, while gold has returned to the $2000 per ounce zone from +0.70%. There is a lot of volatility in the foreign exchange market; after the release of inflation data in the United States (+7.9% year-on-year), the euro/dollar exchange rate falls and returns to 1.10.
